Wednesday, January 28, 2004

coincidentally...

I was actually going to bring up something similar to what ry ry had said. A friend of mind told me he saw somewhere on the news that there is this guy in hong kong who devised an algorithm that calculates the odds on horseraces based on various factors, such as weight, previous victories, odds etc. Apparently he gets pretty good odds in his favor and has already made millions.

My THOUGHT is rather not for horses (which I think would be quite hard to predict its health per se), I think this can be done for stocks, and would be a great project. I think this is largely possible, because if you really break down the market there are several logical factors that drives it. The market has to act logical because no one is crazy enough to invest in an illogical market. (1st assumption)

The second more important assumption, is the premise buying low selling high. But lets take that to another level. At some price, it is inevitable not to buy a stock. If for example, Yahoo is at 5 dollars, based on its current earnings, company financials, and all factors combined etc etc, logically you would buy it at that price. Conversely at some price you would sell it, lets say 40.

What Im saying is, devise an algorithm that takes the emotion out of trading, and you have a proven investment concept over the long term.

J.